The Recovery: Fantasy vs Reality

 PUNDIT'S FANTASY:

Payrolls in U.S. Probably Increased in March as Demand Picked Up

By Alex Kowalski - Bloomberg. Apr 5, 2013 12:00 AM ET

Payrolls probably increased in March and the U.S. jobless rate held at a four-year low as demand improved at the start of the year, economists said before a report today.
Employers hired a net 190,000 workers last month after taking on 236,000 in February, according to the median forecast of 87 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The jobless rate held at 7.7 percent, the lowest since December 2008, the survey indicated. Separate data may show the trade deficit was little changed in February.

Gains in hiring on the heels of a stronger housing market, a pickup in consumer spending and more corporate investment will help bolster the economy as federal budget cuts take hold.

“What you see is remarkable stability in job growth,” said John Ryding, chief economist and co-founder of RDQ Economics in New York. “We are in an OK place in terms of the pace at which we’re growing.” 

THE REALITY OF THE NUMBERS:

Job Gains Slow as Unemployment Rate Falls to Four-Year Low

By Alex Kowalski - Blomberg, Apr 5, 2013 8:46 AM ET

 

Employers hired fewer workers than forecast in March and a slump in the size of the labor force pushed the jobless rate down to a four-year low, indicating the U.S. job market is struggling to make bigger strides.

Payrolls grew by 88,000 workers, the smallest gain in nine months and less than the most-pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg survey, after a revised 268,000 February increase, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 87 economists called for a 190,000 gain. The jobless rate fell to 7.6 percent from 7.7 percent.

Participation Rate

The labor force participation rate fell to 63.3 percent, the lowest since May 1979.