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Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Irreversible Trends:



IRREVERSIBLE TRENDS:

Debt owed by governments, businesses and households around the globe is up nearly 50% since before the financial crisis to $246.6 trillion at the beginning of March, according to the Institute of International Finance, an association of global financial firms. And the high debt levels are weighing heavily on economies

The consumer is holding up though!!  How so:

For the month of July, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.75%. Revolving credit, which are credit cards increased at an annual rate of 11.25% while non-revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5.25%.


That’s over 11% increase in July from June in credit card debt…. 

Therefor: Rates must continue to fall, negative yielding debt continues to grow, which means the global economy continues to stall

Image result for Global interest rate chart

The Unstoppable Surge in Negative
Yields Reaches $17 Trillion

August 30, 2019

The global stock of negative-yielding debt is now in excess of $17 trillion as rising market volatility lends extra force to this year’s unprecedented bond rally.
Thirty percent of all investment-grade securities now bear sub-zero yields, meaning that investors who acquire the debt and hold it to maturity are guaranteed to make a loss. Yet buyers are still piling in, seeking to benefit from further increases in bond prices and favorable cross-currency hedging rates—or at least to avoid greater losses elsewhere.

Monday, August 26, 2019

Image result for gold


       VS Image result for bitcoin

The Gold versus bitcoin debate is absurd.  There are no similarities.

Bitcoin is a risk asset that exists in virtual reality.

Gold is a hard asset that exists in the real world.

Bitcoin is a gambling tool

Gold is a hedge against gambling tools.

Suggesting that bitcoin could replace gold is like suggesting
a computer program of a sprawling palace could replace the apartment 
or house that you live in.  

It may seam to have advantages, like it appears bigger and grander and needs
no upkeep.  But you can't actually live in it because it doesn't exist outside
your computer.

People may even begin flipping their virtual houses and make tons of money -
temporarily they may make more money than people buying and selling real
houses.  But you still can't live in them.

The fact that gold really exists in the natural world may seem quaint and
antiquated to some young people.  But the thing they forget is that they
too exist in the natural world.

And everything that does not exist in the natural world is by the very definition
of the word: SPECULATIVE.

Something that is speculative can never be a hedge against speculation.

That should be obvious.  Yet somehow it's not anymore.

Sunday, August 18, 2019

TRUST AND MONEY

Image result for trump

THE foundation of all economy is trust.   When accepting any form

of money as payment we must trust that the parties involved in the

next transaction will also trust that form of money.  To do so we must

have ultimate trust in either the intrinsic value of the money, or in the ability of 

the issuing institution to provide a safe and stable and enforceable 

environment for the continued value and acceptance of the money.


It is becoming increasingly difficult for many citizens to trust their own

governments.  It is difficult to trust Governments run by officials who 

clearly have only their own personal interests at heart.


It is difficult to place trust in a form of money that charges prohibitive 

fees for the use of the money - such as money that doesn't

provide interest to offset decaying value from over-issuance or actually 

charges the user in absolute terms through negative interest rates.  

This is institutionalized theft, which doesn't foster trust.


Some citizens prefer to place their trust in anonymous issuers using 

mathematical " guarantees" for their money such are bitcoin type currencies.  

This is a sort of  blind trust in technology, which is only possible as 

trust in humans erodes.


This brings us back to the idea of "Intrinsic Value," which may be argued 

is a form of mass delusion over time - but the delusion is academic.  

It's mass acceptance over long periods of time that comprises 

the intrinsic value.  Old master paintings.  Real Estate in popular locations.  

Artifacts related to historically important figures like Julius Caesar 

or Alexander the Great or George Washington, for example.  

These things all hold value over time.  But they

are not divisible so are difficult to use in transactions as money.


This brings us back to gold, which has held its value for over five thousand years. 

There is no need for trust in an issuing authority except as a guarantee of 

weight and purity - which can be easily verified independently.  

And it is divisible into any desired quantity.  Perfect as a store of value.  

Perfect for transactions, even if it means an intermediary step of 

conversion into a local currency.


As trust erodes, gold rises.

Tuesday, August 13, 2019

THE PERFECT STORM FOR GOLD WITH TRUMP IN THE EYE



GOLD THRIVES ON INSTABILITY,  TRUMP IS INSTABILITY PERSONIFIED.


THINGS GOLD LOVES THAT TRUMP IS PUSHING:

1) GLOBAL COMPETITIVE DEVALUATION OF CURRENCY.

2) NEGATIVE RATE ENVIRONMENT. (there is 15 trillion dollars of negative yielding debt )

3) INTERNATIONAL STRIFE SUCH AS TRADE WARS

4) LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IN GOVERNMENT

AND 5 - gold's stealth weapon - (as though it needed anything else) -

A GLOBAL PUSH FOR DEDOLARIZATION - which is untethering gold to it's anti-dollar role, and encouraging governments to increase their gold reserves.

Government’s around the world are becoming increasingly wary of the dollar’s hegemony in international trade, as Trump's polices become increasingly belligerent.  and they’re doing their best to distance themselves from the dollar  by stoking their gold reserves.
This process is already underway mainly in nations with strong anti-U.S. sentiment including Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela, Syria, Turkey, Qatar, India, Pakistan, Libya, Egypt and the Philippines among others.
Naturally, these countries are turning to gold since the yellow metal is not under lock-and-key like the greenback and other electronic payment methods.
This trend is abundantly clear when you look at central banks’ buying activity.
According to the World Gold Council, central banks purchased nearly 70 percent more gold during the first quarter of the year than they did during the previous year’s corresponding period.
That’s the most they bought since the first quarter of 2013.
And goblal central banks are pushing to settle traditional dollar denominated markets with non-dollars payments:  SOME HEADLINES{
In a challenge to longstanding American dominance of the oil industry, China is reportedly planning to launch a pilot program to pay for oil in its own RMB, potentially starting in the second half of this year.

Russia, China Sign Deal To Settle All Trade In Respective Currencies And Drop Bilateral Use Of US Dollars


Iran and China have found a way for China to continue buying Iranian crude and pay for it without risking a U.S. sanction breach, an Iranian official said.
"A Chinese bank will start its banking exchanges with the Iranian side on December 2," the head of the Iran-China Chamber of Commerce, Asadollah Asgaroladi said, adding "The Chinese side is due to introduce its second bank for exchanges with the Iranian side in a month." Sales of crude will begin next week, Asgaroladi also said.
China had a special bank dedicated to handling payments for Iranian oil during the international sanctions against Tehran earlier this decade, so finding ways around sanctions is hardly new

Thursday, August 8, 2019

CENTRAL BANKS BUYING GOLD

central bank demand at highest level since becoming net buyers in 2010

  • Central bank net purchases rose 47% y-o-y to 224.4t in Q2
  • H1 2019 net purchases totalled 374.1t, the highest level since becoming net buyers in 2010
  • Poland was the largest purchaser in the quarter; reserves grew by 100t (+77%)
TonnesQ2'18Q2'19YoY
Central banks & others152.8224.447%


Central bank net purchases totalled 224.4t in Q2, 47% higher y-o-y.
Total net purchases
for the first six months of 2019 rose to 374.1t: 57% higher y-o-y,
and the highest
level of y-t-d demand since central banks became net purchasers
(on an annual basis)
in 2010. Buying momentum has continued strongly from last year
 – 2018
saw the highest level of annual purchases in 50 years –
and is a clear indication of the central banking community’s
 mind-set towards gold.

Central Banks control the global economy.
They control the issue, distribution and cost of currency.
Central Banks don't buy bitcoin.  They buy gold.
You hear many cranky old analysts striving to be hip saying things like
"The kids don't even know what gold is anymore.
It's a useless barbarous relic."  
Maybe.  But the kids don't run the global central banks.
The central banks don't worry about being hip, 
or getting in on the next big thing.
They worry about solvency.  
And when rates are going negative all across the
globe, the safest CURRENCY is gold.  
Is it really still a currency?  
A) The Central Banks own it in quantity.
B) It can be changed for any other currency on demand
in every city in the world.
C) It has a stable 5000 year track record.
Yes, true, you can't buy food with it in a grocery store.
Good point.  But that's not 
why you hold it.

Wednesday, August 7, 2019

TRUMP'S UNWINNABLE TRADE WAR AND GOLD



Trade wars are winnable, in a sense, if conducted by brilliant strategists who understand the win/win psychology of game theory.

That is not Mr Trump.  Mr Trump demands capitulation.  That is why his trade war is doomed to go on and on and on while all sides suffer, until there is total chaos.

Gold loves Chaos.

A long time ago I worked for a US financial concern in China.  I learned two things that nobody in the Trump Wolrd seems to understand.

ONE: The Chinese will never tolerate a loss of face.  No amount of pain and suffering from the Western perspective is worth a loss of face in the Eastern perspective.  Trump  demands a loss of face.

TWO: The Chinese time frame is different from the Western time frame.  And not just because they are totalitarian, or communist or however you'd like to categorize them.  Their time frame is informed by their view of life as a continuum.  They literally worship Ancestors.  For the Chinese if Mr Xi's great grandson wins the Trade War against some President who isn't yet born, that will be a great victory, no matter how much pain is suffered in the meantime.

Trump's time frame can be measured in nanoseconds.

Meanwhile, Trump is convinced he is winning the trade war.  Because in his mind he always wins everything.

The continuing chaos, both economic and social resulting from this bizarre personality disorder is ideal for gold.

Add to this a hyper-drive of global competitive devaluation of currencies (which was happening anyway, but on a much slower scale) and you have the perfect storm for gold.

It's only just begun.