WAR/MASSIVE DEFECITS/TROOPS ON THE STREETS IN THE US = VIX AT ALL TIME LOWS

 

If you looked at the chart above of the volativlity of the SP 500 you'd have to conculde that there were almost no risk on the horizon either politically, militarily, or financially to the US stock markets.

And with almost no prospect of risk of any kind, Gold is still very near all time highs trading around the $3400 mark.  That's an increase of $800 since the new US political regiem has taken power.  So far this move has been largely driven by foreign central banks seeing and protecting themselves against risk.  And the US billionaire class is also sees risk and is buying gold (check out ther services of Matterhorn Asset Management for example.)

But the average US investor still sees no risk.

Yet, it seems that there are risks.  Troops are fighting US citizens on the streets of the largest US cities.  War is intensifying in Ukraine,  War has broken out between Israel backed by the US and Iran - fully backed by China and Russia.  Iran's defenses are far more sophisticated than what we are being told in the Regiem sponsored media.  This war is also intensifying with "surrender" or "regiem change" being held up unrealistically as probabilities.  Yet the real probability is that this war goes on and on and metastacizes.

And then there is the debt storm with Debt Service being the largest portion of the current budget - and with an additional 5 trillion dollars of debt and an complete suspension of the debt ceiling being proposed as economic balm.

Everyone from Jamie Dimon to Ray Dalio to James Grant to Michael Pento to Neil Howe to Jim Rogers to Grant Williams to etc etc is warning that a debt bomb is in the process of detonating.  

Perhaps they are all wrong.  Still it seems that the must be some risk in the debt.  More than is reflected in the Vix' all time low reading.

The reason for this, of course is that eveyrone expects at the first sign of trouble the Fed will come in and bail everyone out.

And of course they will.

But the Fed's balance sheet is still at about 7 trillion dollars from previous bailouts.

How much bad debt does the Fed have to swallow before the US dollar plummets dangerously in value?

Is there no risk there?

When all these risks begin to be factored in to US investor calculation, gold will make the next move in this epic bull market.