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Saturday, June 2, 2012

Why did gold soar Friday?

Why did gold saor 60 bucks Friday?

Record short commitment of trader interest?

combined with:

Huge negative sentiment?

combined with:

Poor employment figures yielding talk of QE3?

Sounds plausible - in a free market.  But all those things could have made it tank 60 bucks with the market.

So, what really happened?

We'll never know.  But I'll bet you an ounce of gold to 1625 paper dollars that the real scenario went something like this:

William Dudley President of the NY Fed, and ex Goldman Sachs Strategist, calls up Goldman's Head of derivatives trading and says, "Hey Joe, Listen, as you know the Employment figures are coming in very weak, so I was talking to Bernanke and we decided at next week's meeting we're going to say something to suggest QE3.

 Joe: "Thanks Bill, who else knows about this?

William: "Just the usual suspects over at Morgan, Black Rock, Paulsen, you know... But listen, don't place the trade until after the announcement at 8:30.  Make it look like you're reacting to the news."

Joe: "Hey, what am I, an idiot?"

William: "Sorry, I had to say it. that's my job."

Okay, maybe the dialogue's ludicrous.  But If you don't think it went down that way, you have no business anywhere near this market.

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