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Sunday, June 19, 2011

ECU meets to arrange a production of New Greek Tragedy this weekend

The Tragedy:

Greece, through hubris, lives like a nation of Gods for several decades, financed solely by debt. They eat like Gods, They party like Gods, They live in palaces like Gods. Yet they are only people.

Greece is broke. Greece is in default on over 150 billion euros. Hard to know exactly how much since the Deus Ex Machina, Goldman Sachs, helped them hide a lot of debt in the form of currency swaps and derivatives that they sold to banks all over the world including the US. Thanks Goldman Sachs!

The Heads of State (Kings) of European Union meets all weekend to find a dramatic production that they can perform on the World Stage that will keep the Greek Default in the realm of Theater with only imaginary repercussions for the Real World Economy.

How can they do this? Well it will take some fantastic Stage Craft to make the World Economy adopt its continued stance of WILLING SUSPENSION OF DISBELIEF.

The best hoped for outcome here - since Greece can NEVER pay back this debt - is for the banks to come out and say: "That was a great performance, we thoroughly enjoyed it and look forward to another entertaining Encore Performance next month which we're sure will be equally delightful. Meanwhile we Banks, along with the Central Banks and the Happy Leaders of Greece agree that the Problem has bee Solved! Greek Debt has been RESTRUCTURED! (At least for now.)

Then the Investment Banks like Goldman Sachs can run up the Stock Market Futures overnight on the great news, and the financial markets ILLUSION OF HEALTH is preserved.

HURRAY - BRAVO - ENCORE shout the people of the world.

All of course, but the PEOPLE OF GREECE. They do not enjoy this Theater - because they are suffering a real Tragedy. They are now all out of work, starving, angry. And this Theater doesn't help them borrow any more money. In fact it demands they accept the "Austerity of the Gods."

But they don't want to. Oops.

While the world rejoices they riot.

And then a little known reviewer called Fitch Ratings says that a rollover of Greek Debt would prompt it to cut Greece's sovereign rating to “restricted default.” The bonds themselves would still avoid default and be left at “a low non-investment grade probably in the region of CCC,” it said.

BOO! Cry the World Audience. Spoilsports!

And then the market euphoria wears off. What if it's not all just entertaining Theater? They wonder. What if Greek Debt really is downgraded to NONPERFORMING. Then doesn't somebody actually LOSE MONEY? BUT WHO?

And what about Italy? What about Spain? What about Portugal? What about Ireland? They all cry. And what about Japan? And how are any of those places different from the United States?

Suddnely the Theatrical Production appears to have Real World Repercussions.

And eventually the World Leaders meet back on the World Stage - and nobody cares about the Stagecraft of their Theatrical Production.

Then What?

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