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Sunday, July 6, 2014

Employment "Boom" VS GDP Crater. How can both be true?



A) The government has simply changed employment metrics:

Shadow Stats: Alternate Unemployment Charts

The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.

The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.
B) Meanwhile Government Birth Death model adds 560,000 Fictional Jobs out of the last 600,000 jobs "Created."  This is the figure that appears in no surveys.  It is simply the government guestimate of how many extra jobs must have been created, for which we have no evidence:

2014 Net Birth/Death Adjustment, not seasonally adjusted (in thousands)
Supersector
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mining and logging
1 1 1 2 2





Construction

8 19 32 36 23





Manufacturing
4 4 -1 6 4





Trade, transportation, and utilities
11 12 17 25 12





Information
5 -3 1 5 -1





Financial activities
7 3 6 8 3





Professional and business services
36 4 75 21 3





Education and health services
17 -5 18 17 -15





Leisure and hospitality
31 35 75 79 84





Other services
4 5 10 6 6





Total nonfarm
birth/death adjustment
124 75 234 205 121







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