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Wednesday, July 8, 2020

WHY INVEST IN GOLD NOW?
























This is a chart of the Gold price over the last 100 years.  This is the definition of an inflation mega-trend.  Except for the period after the depression when the gold price was fixed until 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window in1971, the line slopes ever upward.

The Financial community is very invested in convincing you there is no inflation, therefor zero rates are appropriate.

Look at the chart.  Does that look like there is no inflation?  Look at your personal finances.  Are things getting cheaper and cheaper?  Or is life getting more and more expensive?  I think unless you are so rich you can't tell the difference because it's all pocket change to you, the answer is obvious.

Are you afraid of getting in at the top here?  Then ask yourself this: is the inflation megatrend about to stop?  For that to happen rates would have to rise to the real cost of money which is currently about 10 percent year over year, plus a risk premium.  

But rates are controlled by the CENTRAL BANK.  They are not set by the FREE MARKET.  For the Government to allow rates to rise when the US deficit is 26 Trillion dollars and rising by 2 trillion dollars a year, and when the real economy is in a depression, and when the Central Bank's own balance sheet is carrying over 10 trillion dollars of debt - THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE.  

Ever since Volker temporarily halted inflation in 1979 by raising rates to 17 percent, every subsequent Fed head has simply slashed rates at any sign of a downturn.  This gave the impression of financial stability.  Meanwhile Debt piled up, Inflation in Real Assets skyrocketed, Malinvestment went wild, and the wealth gap careened out of control.

Now rates are at ZERO.

REAL RATES will only go lower.  While Nominal Rates will hover between ZERO and NEGATIVE.  

What are Negative Rates?  In theory they don't even exist.  Because it means you pay somebody for the privilege of loaning them money.  The catch is nobody will loan you money at any price because if you need it you probably can't pay it back.  But if you want to try to get a return on your money it will cost you, because the government is so broke it's the only way they can get money.

Absurd?  Right?  That is what happens when the inflation megatrend spins out of control.  That is where we are.  What is the Policy Prescription?  There isn't one.  That is why gold is only at the very beginning of its mega-rise.

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