Saturday, May 4, 2013
FANTSAY JOBS FIGURE FUELS REAL RALLY:
Wall Street is using the addition of 165,000 burger flipping, drink order taking, floor sweeping jobs to rally to new all-time highs. It’s the reason of the day, when anyone with two brain cells knows that the market would have soared if the number was 50,000. With Ben Bernanke pumping $85 billion of heroin into the veins of Wall Street on a monthly basis, the big swinging dicks will keep swinging. Their HFT supercomputers are programmed to buy. It will work until it doesn’t.
193,000 of those 165,000 jobs were created courtesy of the BLS birth death model. The BLS survey yielded LOSS OF 28,000 JOBS!
But that's not possible, right? Not five years into a massively successful recovery! Surely we can just add in another 193,000, and call it even. That's actually pretty restrained. You'd think they could add in, say 293,000. That would look a little more like a recovery.
In the real world, the number of working age Americans increased by 180,000, so even today’s fantasy number doesn’t even keep up with population growth.
TO REPEAT: A BLS drone with an excel spreadsheet model created 193,000 jobs out of thin air. The BLS is guessing that is how many jobs were added by small businesses in April. With increasing taxes, lower consumer spending, stagnant wages and looming Obamacare taxes and regulations, do you really think small businesses are adding employees in great numbers? Really?
In the real world the percentage of people in the labor force is at a 34 year low. Sounds like a reason for a stock market rally. There are 1.6 million more Americans employed today than one year ago – of course most of the jobs are as temps or in low paying service jobs. Over this same time frame the working age population grew by 2.4 million. Surely this means the unemployment rate went up. It’s just basic math. But NO. The unemployment rate has plunged from 8.1% to 7.5%.
To get that figure, all you have to do is pretend that 1.6 million Americans willingly left the labor force and do not want a job anymore. Why would they want a job in the midst of the worst economic environment since the Great Depression? Racking up $150,000 of student loan debt going to the University of Phoenix or developing a back ache to get on SSDI for life is much easier than working at a job.
The American Dream is alive and well, in the mouths of Big Banks and the Wall Street shills. So go out and buy on credit. Otherwise, the terrorists win.