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Sunday, November 26, 2023

AN OLD MARKET IS REDISCOVERED

 

Una and the lion medallion sold at heritage auctions for $144,000 in 2021

Medallions, especially in gold have always been the prized possessions in the cabinets of Kings and Queens, Emperors and Tzars.   If you go to the British Museum, or the Hermitage or the Louvre for example you can see large gold medallions that were once the prized possessions of Royalty.

When you think about the idea of Intrinsic Value it's not hard to understand.  Medallions were struck for the pleasure of monarchs by the great engravers of their eras.  They celebrate momentous occassions: Coronations, Victories of War,  Peace Settlements, Artistic and Scientific acheivements, and the like.  Most any large gold medallion you can buy would have been originally owned by an historical figure of note.  

But after the bullion price of gold collapsed after Volker crushed inflation in 1980, which coincided with an activist Federal Reserve Bank keeping real rates negative for the next 50 years along with the US government's systematic dismantling of its regulatory agencies and systems, a strange thing happened.  Momentum Trading began to replace Value Investing.  

Not all at once.  But persistently.  And as it did Hard Asset Investing took a hit and Historical Gold medallions took a back seat to the momentum trade herd mentality chasing whatever could be hyped.  In the coin world it was mostly US rartities like Lincoln Pennies from rare dates one of which sold for nearly 2 million dollars.   This happened as the price to earnings multiples of stocks rapidly expanded, debt to equity ratios blew up and new industries developed like the Leveraged Buyout Firms that sold junk debt to unsuspecting banks and insurance companies destroying value and killing jobs.  All the while the Fed kept lowering rates to make the debt fueled orgy more and more compelling. This moirphed into the Private Equity Business that now control and systematically destroys the value of Hosptals, Schools, Universities, Nursing Homes, Real Estate, Super Markets etc - making everything extraordinarily expensive while gutting these institutions of all value.

Is it any wonder that value investing in hard assets of intrinsic value took a hit.

But a strange thing has happened in the last few years.

People started to become wise to this cynical game.  And investors started to seek to protect themselves against the currency devaluation that accompanies the cynical explosion of debt and debt financings.

This coincided with the steady rise of the gold bullion price - and the rediscovery of Hard Assets and especially Historical Gold Medallions.

The Brtish Series of Coronation Medals began to catch a serious bid.  The Queen Anne gold coronation medal for example which as readily available for $5000 ten years ago now sells for $50,000 in High Grade.

Then the Holy Roman Emperors caught a robust bid.  This Leopold gold Coronation Medallion sold for $360,00 in 2021

Medallion of the Russian Tzars caught a bid. Medallions of French Kings, and here in the US Betts Medals and Indian Peace Medals and the Medals pertaining to George Washington were rediscovered

                                     Washingtom funeral gold medal $372000 at Heritage auctions 2023

To be sure, the momentum trading that had dominated the last 50 years of investing still has a hold on market psychology.

But the explosion of debt has finally resulted in a pernicious inflation that can no longer be disguised by fictitious government data.  Everyone knows real things are getting more and more expensive vis a vis debased currencies.

And more and more investors are seeking the safety of Real Things of Intrinsic Value.

So what exactly is the Intrinsic Value of Large Gold Historical Medals?

1) Most obviously large gold medals are comprised of a lot of gold of high purity.  As the price of bullion inevitably rises for many many reasons so must the price of high grade gold artifacts.

2) These medallion are historical artifacts.  As such they are objects of of Historical Interest - perhaps even historical importance.  

3) Beauty,  These medallion were most often engraved by highly skilled artists with unique and beautiful designs.

4) Absolute Rarity. Historical Gold Medallions were minted in amounts limited to the VIPS who attended the specific ceremonies.  Even commemorative medallions that were minted for collectors at or near the time of these events were issued in tiny mintages because those who could afford to pay for a large gold artworks were only the extremely wealthy.  Most often only a small handful - perhaps 5 to 10 pieces, perhaps less, are available in decent  collectable grade on the market.

But like the price of bullion gold, the Large Gold Medal Market is really only newly rediscovered.  There is so much room to grow - because the dirty little secret of modern debt financing is that the debt has reached sufficient levels that through the burden of Debt Service alone it must continue to spiral ever out of control.  And as rates spriral higher debt service becomes ever more expensive, currencies are debased,,,

And so Hard Assets of intrinsic value will become more and more valuable.

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