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Saturday, April 4, 2020

That's it for Capitalsim



The last heroic act of Capitalism occurred in 1979 when Paul Volker raised rates to 17 percent, crushing inflation and giving the working middle class family a chance to flourish just by putting their hard earned cash in the bank. 

Since 1979 Capitalism has been taking the path of cutting corners, screwing the middle class and beggaring thy neighbor by competitively devaluing currencies by cutting rates at every bump in the road, while debasing accounting standards, ratings standards and GDP metrics all the  while keeping the real return of money ever below the real rate of inflation. 

Now the game is over. Capitalism is dead and gone.

Global Rates are Zero and Below.

The Fed's balance sheet is headed towards 10 Trillion dollars.

The Federal Deficit is headed towards 30 Trillion dollars.

The Government is printing money and just sending it to citizens, and buying all of its own debt, and most of the rest of the debt that;s out there.

Modern Monetary Theory (of Magic Money Tree) is the theory wherein the Government can just print whatever money it needs to spend on whatever it wants, to infinity.  Deficits are irrelevant.  Debt is something that never need to be repaid. Idiots can run the government, because solving a problem just means pushing a button and running the printing presses to mint more money.

I don't know what system of economy this is, but it's not capitalism by any stretch of the imagination - nor is it socialism which still requires labor to create wealth. 

This is new. 

The result of cutting rates from 17 percent in 1980 to 6 percent in 2000 was that the Dow went from 1000 to 10,000: Prosperity  by borrowing growth from the future  That's the definition of Negative Real Rates Policy.

From 2000 to 2025 - the last 25 years the Dow has doubled as we cut rates from 6 percent to ZERO.  And most of that growth was driven by Corporate Stock Buybacks.

Still not bad, i guess, though real inflation has careened out of control so that if you bought real assets like Gold or Real Estate or Old Master Paintings or classic cars or comic books etc during the same period you would have made 5 to 20 times as much as you would have in stocks.  Gold for example went from 250 dollars to 1600 during that period.

So what next?  Nobody has any idea because in Economic Theory, Negative Rates don't exist.  There is no system in theory or historical practice that covers the same ground as Modern Monetary Theory of MAGIC MONEY printed and distributed at the Whim of whatever Moron has his hand on the Magic Button.

Whatever occurs my guess is that REAL ASSETS continue to do way better than Paper Assets.  Just my opinion.

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