Saturday, August 1, 2015
Gold Gurus Babble:
On the whole Gold Analysts are the Most Bearish since 2002 according to the Financial Times: You'll recall that in 2002 gold was at its low point.
Jason Zweig of the Wall Street Journal has pronounced gold nothing but a "pet rock." Back in 2011 at the peak of the market he declared it an excellent time to buy gold stocks as they were sure to rocket much higher.
Peter Schiff has been touting his dollar collapse into hyper inflation theory which will send gold to $5000 and higher for many many years. As the dollar continues to strengthen and deflation takes hold he is undaunted by facts on the ground and continues to hold fast to his theory.
Martin Armstrong has been touting his $680 gold bottom. He was in a jail cell for securities fraud in 2011 but he first declared gold would reach $12000, and when it started to crash he switched to saying gold would reach 660 by 2013, by which time the Dow would double. Now that he is wrong, he says that all his predictions are contingent on the markets "electing bearish reversals in conjunction with phase shift reversals within recurring time frames." Since nobody on earth knows what that means except Mr. Armstrong's self proclaimed Self-Aware Super-Intelligent Computer, given to him personally by the the Time Travelers from Alpha Centurion it's not really possible to ascertain whether he will ever be right.
John Laforge of Ned Davis research, another $660 gold predictor here in 2015, had this to say in 2011 right at Gold's Peak: ""Gold's bull run reflects a lack of trust and credibility in governments and central banks worlwide to stop printing paper money at will.... Until governments start enacting more sound money policies, gold should continue to rise. "
SOC GEN BANK: the streets biggest Gold Bear predicts gold to fall to $800 by 2017. Back in 2011 at the hieght of the Gold Bull SOC GEN Analyst David Wilson on Bloomberg called for gold reach $2000 within six months and then head on to $3000 not long after: check it out at: .https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PS3GoUuqboM
GOLDMAN SACHS gold analyst Jeffrey Curie is also among the streets most bearish here in 2015, He is calling for gold to fall well below 1000 by the end of the year. Back in 2012, a year into the gold decline, he was still the most bullish analyst on the street calling for gold to rise back to $1800 by the end of the year.
Obviously there's a lot of noise competing for your dollars to buy their research.
But, in truth, there is no "Fair Value" for gold - or for anything else for that matter. It's all perception.
Gold measures the perception of Trust in the Financial Stability of prevailing governments.
Right now at $1100 there's a lot more trust than in 2011. And a lot less trust than in 2000.
We're rapidly approaching the amount of trust there was in government in 2008: right before the global financial system collapsed - only to be bailed out by the greatest transfer of wealth from the private citizens to the Big Banks, in the history of the world.
How much trust do you have?