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Monday, October 14, 2024

A STRANGE CORRECTION

 


Well, it looked like a correction.  Then the gold price popped back up tp $2650.  The problem for those waiting for this correction to get in - is that the Central Banks of the World aren't waiting for a correction. 

 They're buying.

It used to be that the Fed could manufacture a good correction simply by backing the JP Morgan trading desk which would dump as many sell orders as necessary on the Future market in the thin evening session and then in the morning everyone long would panic sell into it creating a huge downwared move.

Now, they still try it but whatever size the JP Morgan trading desk can throw at Gold, the Central Banks of China, Russia, India, Indonesia, Poland, Mongolia, Czech Republic, Mexico etc simply say the equivalent of "Goody, Cheap Gold,  I'll take some of that!"  And the price pops right up.

It used to be you could even watch the COT (commitment of trader) reports and see when the commercials were net shot and the small traders were net long and predict a good move down.

But the Central Banks don't appear in those reports.

The game has changed.

It doesn't mean gold can't correct.  Everything does eventually.

It just means all the old ways of predicting the Gold movemnet are out the window.

Because the Central Banks of the world don't want to depend on the US Dollar when the US dollar is 

A) Drowning in debt.

B) Has been weaponized through Tarrifs and Sancations.

C) Is under the control of a potentially erratic, aggressive and unpredicatble Government.

This is not my opinion.  This is the open assessment of the BRICS+ Nations that are leading the accumulation of Gold while aggressively de-dollarizing their economies.

That doesn't mean the dollar will cease to be the Global Reserve Currency right away.  That's not possible with a Eurodollar market 5 times the size of the US dollar market.  But All of the dollar Reserves is held in the form of DEBT.

But it does mean that Gold has much much further to run vis a vis the US dollar - and all other currencies.  Because it is becoming the Global Reserve Currency that is NOT A UNIT OF DEBT.  It is a PURE ASSET.  It has no counterparty risk.  (And it can not be eroded by simply printing more units of debt - like the US dollar.)

So everyone has a choice as to what reserve currency they employ.  

Debt or a pure asset.

That includes every private citizen.

That includes you.


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