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Monday, June 22, 2020


The Long View is always the best view when considering any type of investment.  We live in a world of day traders.  Most of the major corporations and banks are day traders in the sense that they're most concerned with the next quarter or perhaps, at most, the next year or two.

The Federal Reserve Bank is also most concerned with the here and now.  The present set of circumstances.  They want to iron out and "normalize" any shock.

This is short term thinking.  Short term thinking can work for years.  But we now live in  world where short term solutions have led to such extreme capital mis-allocation that the short term effects of short term thinking are becoming exposed.

The Fed's balance sheet is now north of 10 trillion dollars.  The Federal yearly deficit is north of 2 trillion dollars.  The balance sheets of the general public are such that 70 percent of the population can't afford to miss a single paycheck without going into crushing debt.

Add in a pandemic, a clueless and malignantly corrupt administration, and an atmosphere of global civil unrest and you have a situation where short term thinking won't serve very well anymore.

The trouble is coming up with a long term view that is serviceable.

If you're trying to solve societal and global economic dislocations, that's pretty tough, as societies and global economic structures are not organized in ways that are all that similar to the past 3000 years of history.

If you're trying to protect your own finances the past 3000 years of history can be instructive, because the concerns of household finances (Oikos-nomos or economy) are not that different from generations past.

You have your house itself.  You have your dependents.  You have your fixed costs.  You have your income.  You have your store of wealth. 

The store of wealth is the big issue for long term security.  A store of wealth has characteristics as true now as they were 3000 years ago in classical Greece.  Your store of wealth most have INTRINSIC VALUE = VALUE that has passed the test of time.  Things that have been valuable for hundreds ot thousands of years. 

For example: Time Tested Master Artworks.  Important Historical Documents and Artifacts.  Gold.  Gems.

Your store of value also should be durable, portable and divisible in order to be most useful. 

Some Artworks that are tiny.  Gold,  Some Gems.

As the situation becomes increasingly difficult, wise investors always move back towards that which have always worked. 

The problem is, if you don't get out ahead of the situation, these stores of value become increasingly difficult, and more expensive to acquire.

Wednesday, June 3, 2020


Gold Seasonals dictate a selloff for Jun-july.  There is little buying of physical gold in Asia: China, India during this period.  This enables the large Bank/Trading Firms who get unlimited cash from the Federal Reserve Bank at 0 percent to sell huge amounts of Future contracts into the market, causing a a paper crash so that they can steal the money of small traders, without fearing that delivery concerns might screw their trades.  

It happens every year.  I was beginning to fear that the massive destabilization of American Life caused by the Trump Administration would scuttle this year's selloff.  But the Banks are more powerful than the chaos.  And they've begun to take gold down.  It won't go down in a straight line because of the massive Trump chaos.  But they'll get it down.  

Be prepared as this will create a buying opportunity of a lifetime in August.

Monday, June 1, 2020

Everything has changed... forever

The Senseless Cruelty of Donald J. Trump - The AtlanticOpinion | The Case Against Riots - The New York Times
Trump fans' anger at the media - YouTube
SPD: 57 arrests during Saturday's riots in Seattle | KOMO
Even When They're Happy, They're Mad - Santa Monica Daily PressCan Riots Be Predicted? Experts Watch Food Prices : The Salt : NPR

Trump was supposed to change everything.  He was the candidate who could tap into white anger.  Now he is the president who has made Anger into the fabric that defines American life.  Everything has changed..

With an unemployment rate of 22 percent, and an underemployment rate near 30 percent, and a 7 trillion dollar bailout package aimed nearly exclusively at the largest Banks, Corporations and Hedge Funds, it is tough to see how working people become less angry.

Rates are at ZERO so working people get no return on their bank accounts, while the Stock Market soars.  The fact is that while pundits will say that working people have their retirement and pensions accounts tied to the markets the truth is most of their pension funds have long since gone broke, and most have tapped out their retirement accounts long ago to make rent and feed their families. So working people are angry.  And since Trump's one great talent is to tap into and st6ke the anger of older white people with little or no education it's a safe bet his response will be to ratchet up the anger on his side.  Which will only ratchet up the anger on the other side.

All as the economy slides into hopeless depression.

If you don't have a little gold, you might want to get some.