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Friday, May 8, 2020

GOLD AND UNCERTAINTY


GOLD IS ABOVE ALL ELSE A MEASURE OF GLOBAL INSTABILITY.  Another word for Instability might be Uncertainty.

The World Uncertainty Index measures how many times the words Uncertain and Uncertainty are mentioned in newspaper articles referencing economic policy in the world's 20 largest economies.

Trump's trade war made the uncertainly index spike to levels only seen after the 9/1/1 crisis.

Not coincidentally this coincided with a spike in the gold price from $1400 to $1700.

This is perhaps the best guage of how badly Trump damaged global economic stability before the pandemic.

Now, with covid 19 the index has spiked to levels well beyond 9/1/1 and well beyond the financial crisis fo 2008,

We are in uncharted territory,  And for now, while Trump and the mainstream economic community pound the table for a return to pre covid economic norms, when it finally dawns on the economic community that this will never happen, watch the Uncertainty index spike to new highs - along with gold.

UNCERTAINTY INDEX POST COVID:
Disciplined Systematic Global Macro Views: Pandemic uncertainty ...


UNCERTAINTY INDEX DURING TRUMPS"S TRADE WAR:
New Index Tracks Trade Uncertainty Across the Globe – IMF Blog

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