The Pause that Refreshes

 

Gold has paused around the $2500 level.  Nothing goes straight up.  And we've hit a concensus: wait and see area.

Meaning: Do we have a soft landing?  Does inflation pause here and then dip back down into the Fed range - or does it ratchet back up?  Who wins the election and what does that mean for the economy?  Both wars appear to be out of mind and in permanent holding patterns with no solution in sight but with nothing materially worse in store.  Everything is on pause.

Or so it seems.

And gold like all risk assets performs in the short short run according to how "it seems."

And now, especially a world of social media where everything is relative, one truth is as good as another, and every possible truth can be found in any number of massive media echo chamber: How it seems is how it is.

But the difference between how things appear to be going and how they are going is a distinction that can leave you well off or destitute.

How things are going are thus: We are drowning in debt.  Both candidates are pledging massive amounts of addtional debt.  Inflation in real things can and must continue to spriral out of control.  The participants on both sides of both wars have pledged to continue their wars until one side attains a complete and total victory and the other side is wiped out.  There will be no compromises of any lasting value.  All commodities thus affected, especially oil and grain will over time become severely disrupted causing even \greater inflation, and ever greater global instability.

And our country is hopelessly divided by a hatred born out of the need to blame something more concrete than Negative Real Rates for our physical deprivations.  And the debased human opportunists who feed off this hatred.

That is happening.

Who cares how things seem right now?

(The markets - in the very short run)

In the long run everything is clearly pointing towards a higher gold price.