RARE GOLD COINS AND AND MEDALS AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY: INFLEXIBLE SUPPLY

 

We live in a world of inflexible supply.  This is the central fact of the current global economy.  What  does that mean?

Broken Supply Chains make getting goods from point A to point B difficult at best; and often times impossible.

Many people blame that on covid.  That is a misunderstaning.  The problem is Global Mistrust.  Hatred of the other.  Incendiary rhetoric combined with unthinkably stupid policy.  Trade Wars.  Tarrifs.  Sanctions.  Immigration Wars.  Hot Wars.  It all contributes to the destruction of supply lines what were imagined to be Global in Nature for the period starting about 1980 and ending with a Bang in 2017.

The destruction of supply lines means Inflation Forever.  Because the central banks can only affect the demand side.  When you get supply side inflation there is nothing they can do.  Even a global depression won't keep prices from rising if the commodities become increasingly scarce.  You may get a period of Disinflation - that only means inflation is rising a bit less quickly.

Now, Rare Gold Numismatics exist in a Global Market.  These are becoming increasinly valuable as trust in global currencies weakens. But as trust weakens Mistrust gains strength.  And getting valuable goods from point A to point B becomes increasingly dffiicult.

Customs is becoming a huge problem even between countries that are apparantly allies.  Everything gets hung up in customs now.  Hopefully for short periods of time.  Sometimes for ever.

Memorandums of Understanding Between countries on goods that fall under  Cultural Heritage laws - such as rare gold collector coins - are becoming increasingly contentious.  Countries with animosities towards other countries will try to snatch anything they can get their hands on.   Even traditionally friendly countries that are miffed by tarrifs or other trade policies may become difficult to deal with.

All this mean that as supply becomes disrupted - like anywhere else - the rare coin market is bound to become more and more expensive.

Get used to it.

For now it's a one way bet.