When the Fed pivots, it will be gold's day. Raising rates into the massive mountain of domestic and global debt that exists today is the world's biggest game of chicken. It's like racing cars towards the edge of a cliff to see who will blink and hit the brakes.
If the Fed blinks and stops raising before inflation has been brought fully under control, they lose all credibility and with the loss of confidence the world's central banks will all sell dollars to buy gold.
If the Fed doesn't blink and keeps raising rates even thought inflation is now largely a supply side problem, they drive the car right over the cliff and cause an explosion in the credit markets that will cause the world's central banks to sell dollars and buy gold.
Right now it's a waiting game.
We're all waiting to see if there's a miracle "Soft landing," where inflation drops back to zero and the global economy accelerates and profits surge, a real Hollywood ending.
Some people think that's possible.
Not Felix Zulauf, or Simon Hunt, or Jim Rogers, or Jim Rickards, or Marc Faber, or Kyle Bass or Mike Green, or Jim Grant, or Bill Fleckenstein, or Lacy Hunt, or Grant Williams, but...
Probably somebody you've seen on some cable market show.
Put me in the no soft landing camp.
Put me in the forced pivot camp.
And when it comes, that's when gold and hard assets will be the only safe havens in a world of burning paper, and electronic malfunction.
Perhaps not at first. At first all assets will explode upwards with a real pivot.
Then inflation comes back with a vengeance.
Then....
We're in uncharted territory. What happens when an historically debt laden economy faces out of control inflation with trend sub one percent growth and a shriking labor force?
Nobody knows.
Only one thing's for sure:
You'd better have hard assets if you want to survive.
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