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Friday, March 18, 2022

The least volatile gold investment:

 



The most volatile gold investment is gold stocks.  These can crash if there is a market crash even if gold goes up.  Second most volatile is paper gold.  Paper gold is at the mercy of the bullion banks who, in the short run, control the price of the paper gold market through the futures market.

Real Bullion gold moves more slowly as the premiums can simply expand when paper gold is taken down artificially.  Peope are not apt to sell their real gold during short term articicial swings - especially during times of real world risk.  Still bullion can suffer swings in the short run.

But the bullion investment that really moves with the least amount of volatility is the Bullion Based limited issue graded coin market.

This is because the collector value of these coins stabilizes swings in the bullion value.  If someone owns a high grade rare one ounce coin, certified and graded, they don't really care all that much about short term swings in the gold market.  The long terms trajectory of gold is much more important.

So - how do you get started learning about this market:

Here is a rudimentary primer on some of the most popular forms of this bullion: in arbitrary order.  It should be noted that all the coins below appear regularly in Heritage and Stacks auctions of collector coins.  That means they are liquid.

1) 

The French hundred franc gold angel, nearly an ounce of gold.  Issued between 1878 and 1913 with a few very short print years 1887-1896.  The short prints can be very valuable in high grade.  Normal years were minted between 10,000 and 20,000.  Graded in mint state these go above bullion.  In MS 63 or better the premiums widen out considerably to twice bullion or better.  It's an attractive and widely collected coin, also available in 20 and 50 franc denominations.


2 )

The peruvian 100 soles minted between 1950 and 1970 this coin is more recent but larger at about 1.347 ounces per coin.  Also an attactive design based on an earlier issue, this coin was minted betweend 126 and 23,000 depending on the year.  Short print years are of course much more valuable.  Because it is more recent and was never really a criculating coin like the french angel, it can appear in grades up to MS 67.  The higher the grade the more valuable.



3) 
The Mexican 50 pesos coin is 1.2 ounces of gold issued 1931-41 in larger quantities of 180,000 to 716,000 and then reissued in the millions between 1943-47.  Still in high ther original issue years go for more than 1.5 times bullion, as tbis issue is popular.  In very high grades MS 65 or better, the original issues, espcecially lower mintage years can go easily twice bullion.




4)  
British collectable bullion.  This is a huge and enormously popular market.  The basic denominations are half sovereigns, soveriegns, two pounds and five pounds pieces.  Basic sovereigns traded at a heavy premium to bullion even in common years and AU condition.  Rare years, rare mintmarks, proofs etc can be very valuable.  It is a large and complex market, going back hundreds of years, and including gerneral issues and issues in short print from this very year.  

5) 
Austrian mint 100 coronas, about one ounce of gold. The basic issue wasn minted 1909 -1914 in small quantities between 1200 and 11,000 but most years closer to 1200 and in high grade is more than 3 times bullion.  But there are other issues, like the Lady in the Clouds, and the cornation year issue etc that are much more valuable in high grade.  There are also modern restrikes that go for bullion prices.




6)


China Mint Gold Pandas and other assorted issues, beginning in 1982 to present day.  The 1982 panda at about 17,000 pieces goes for easily twice mint in MS 68 or 69.  Short print years especially of known very short prints like the half ounce 1995 can go for several times bullion in high grade.  Other very short prints of popular designs like Unicorns can also go for several times bullion in high grades.  It is a vast and complex market worthy of study before entering







7) 
Paris Mint modern issues of classic designs.  The most popular of these are the 5 franc gold sowers, and the 10 or 50 franc Hercules types.  These are limited issues of between 5 and 400 from about 1971-1979.  Three years ago they traded for slightly above bullion.  Now in MS 68 or 69 they go for between 2 and 4 times bullion depending on the year and mintage figure.  




8)


British Mint and British Protectorate mints restrikes on classic designs.  These are contemporary issues at 1 ounce to 5 ounces is small mintages of btween 75 and 400 pieces.  And in MS 69 or 70 these can go for several times bullion as the original designs go often in the hundredes of thousands of dollars.  These are prized by collectors who will never be able to afford originals.

9)

Dutch Mint, US Mint, Australian Mint etc short print one and two ounce coins of popular and well executed dies.  Every mint is getting into it.  This means that the number of issues are multiplying likely diluting the value of all issues.  But some issues just grab collector attention.  So choose carefully,




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