The Guardian view on the Greek election: a new deal for a new era
Syriza’s victory is a rejection of the toughest austerity regime in the eurozone and should be respected
At a stroke, the Greek general election of 2015
has destroyed the post-recessionary political norms and assumptions of
Greece and shaken those of the European Union to the core as well. For
six years, Greeks have protested against harsh eurozone disciplines, but
the nation’s eventual, though resentful, readiness to put up with the
resulting hardships has been a source of stability. In Sunday’s vote,
however, Greek patience finally snapped, particularly among the middle classes,
ousting the pro-austerity government of New Democracy and electing the
anti-austerity left-coalition Syriza in its place. As a consequence, the
past is no longer much of a guide to the future, at least in Athens,
and perhaps elsewhere in Europe.
Amid torrents of speculation about the meaning of the Greek result, the one certainty is that Syriza’s victory marks a historic refusal by Greeks to continue with the austerity to which they reluctantly assented in return for the €240bn bailouts of 2010 and 2012. Those bailout terms were due to be assessed next month any way. Now that process will take on far greater urgency. The probable new prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, has won a mandate to demand significant changes. He will need to be able to show Greeks that he can ease the wage and pension cuts and the higher taxes with which Greeks have struggled for so long. For the moment, Greece’s democratic verdict defines everything else. The question, both for Greece and for Europe, is what comes next. No one yet really knows the answer to that.
Syriza’s success is an astonishing electoral triumph. In postwar Europe it is highly unusual for a genuinely new electoral force – as opposed to a refit – to move from nowhere to government in the few years that it has taken Syriza. Other insurgent parties – such as France’s Front National, Germany’s Greens or Italy’s Lega Nord – can hardly compare with either the momentum or the achievement, never mind the programme. Such parties may have succeeded in inserting themselves into their national political calculus; none has swept to such a dizzying election win as Syriza managed on Sunday.
This fact is however a reminder that the situation in Greece is a very particular one. Every country in western Europe has a far left. From time to time these parties enjoy an electoral spike. But the severity of its fiscal crisis – which was partly the predictable payback for the reckless decision by Athens to insist on and by the EU to allow Greek membership of the eurozone – marks Greece out. So does its political history, shaped successively by German occupation, civil war, military rule and the corruption of modern governments of both right and left. Greece’s situation is not typical. Syriza’s success will trigger great enthusiasm in other parts of Europe. Whether it is an outrider for a more general far left moment in Europe is less certain. Other Syrizas are not likely to succeed without something close to the economic and political conditions that apply in Greece. Few other European countries fit that bill.
The overarching issue now is whether the Greek government and its creditors can find enough common interest to strike a deal. This is certainly what Greeks, three-quarters of whom want to stay part of the EU, want. Syriza’s clear mandate should help to concentrate minds on finding an outcome that gives Greece a fresh start that will satisfy the whole Syriza coalition and the rest of the eurozone, above all Germany, without triggering either a run on the banks or a domino effect around the eurozone as other nations demand similar treatment. Debt relief accompanied by commitment to continue reforms such as effective tax collection (many Greeks did not pay their taxes last month in anticipation of a Syriza win) is the key to this. This is certainly the most desirable outcome.
Whether it is a possibility depends largely on Germany, which still pretends that the eurozone can succeed only by continuing with the fiscal rectitude that caused the Greek political earthquake in the first place. This will not be easy for Angela Merkel. Yet unless and until demand is boosted in Greece and the eurozone generally, the political structures of Europe will continue to face moments like this, and perhaps worse ones. It is not just Greece that needs a fresh start but the whole eurozone. It is time for the north to listen to the message from the south.
Amid torrents of speculation about the meaning of the Greek result, the one certainty is that Syriza’s victory marks a historic refusal by Greeks to continue with the austerity to which they reluctantly assented in return for the €240bn bailouts of 2010 and 2012. Those bailout terms were due to be assessed next month any way. Now that process will take on far greater urgency. The probable new prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, has won a mandate to demand significant changes. He will need to be able to show Greeks that he can ease the wage and pension cuts and the higher taxes with which Greeks have struggled for so long. For the moment, Greece’s democratic verdict defines everything else. The question, both for Greece and for Europe, is what comes next. No one yet really knows the answer to that.
Syriza’s success is an astonishing electoral triumph. In postwar Europe it is highly unusual for a genuinely new electoral force – as opposed to a refit – to move from nowhere to government in the few years that it has taken Syriza. Other insurgent parties – such as France’s Front National, Germany’s Greens or Italy’s Lega Nord – can hardly compare with either the momentum or the achievement, never mind the programme. Such parties may have succeeded in inserting themselves into their national political calculus; none has swept to such a dizzying election win as Syriza managed on Sunday.
This fact is however a reminder that the situation in Greece is a very particular one. Every country in western Europe has a far left. From time to time these parties enjoy an electoral spike. But the severity of its fiscal crisis – which was partly the predictable payback for the reckless decision by Athens to insist on and by the EU to allow Greek membership of the eurozone – marks Greece out. So does its political history, shaped successively by German occupation, civil war, military rule and the corruption of modern governments of both right and left. Greece’s situation is not typical. Syriza’s success will trigger great enthusiasm in other parts of Europe. Whether it is an outrider for a more general far left moment in Europe is less certain. Other Syrizas are not likely to succeed without something close to the economic and political conditions that apply in Greece. Few other European countries fit that bill.
The overarching issue now is whether the Greek government and its creditors can find enough common interest to strike a deal. This is certainly what Greeks, three-quarters of whom want to stay part of the EU, want. Syriza’s clear mandate should help to concentrate minds on finding an outcome that gives Greece a fresh start that will satisfy the whole Syriza coalition and the rest of the eurozone, above all Germany, without triggering either a run on the banks or a domino effect around the eurozone as other nations demand similar treatment. Debt relief accompanied by commitment to continue reforms such as effective tax collection (many Greeks did not pay their taxes last month in anticipation of a Syriza win) is the key to this. This is certainly the most desirable outcome.
Whether it is a possibility depends largely on Germany, which still pretends that the eurozone can succeed only by continuing with the fiscal rectitude that caused the Greek political earthquake in the first place. This will not be easy for Angela Merkel. Yet unless and until demand is boosted in Greece and the eurozone generally, the political structures of Europe will continue to face moments like this, and perhaps worse ones. It is not just Greece that needs a fresh start but the whole eurozone. It is time for the north to listen to the message from the south.
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