GOLD AND METRICS:

Gold simply measures confidence in the paper monetary system.  

No metrics really matter.  

What matters is how many people feel they need the insurance of gold against mismanagement of the paper economy at how many ounces, and what is the supply to these people.  

There are those who take their insurance in paper gold -  ETF and Futures – and obviously they can be easily spooked out of their positions.  Most of them are just speculating anyway.  

There are also those who want their insurance in real gold.  This includes many central banks.  These holders tend to be more long term (stronger hands)  So, gold goes up as more and more people lose confidence in the paper system.  

Why people lose confidence and when is hard to quantify.  

My confidence in those managing the paper economy is very low.  So I hold a lot of gold.

At the moment the massive global easing coupled with a flow of European and Japan paper into the US economy seems to have restored a certain amount of confidence in the US paper economy.  

I think that confidence is misplaced.  So I still hold a lot of gold.

Maybe I'll be wrong.  Maybe Infinite debt can cure the ills of too much debt.

We'll see.