This is quoted directly from Shadowstats, a site that gives straight up interpretation to the government economic releases. No spin. Subscription prices are reasonable. Check out today's commentary and see if you want to subscribe. (I get nothing by plugging this site. I just think everyone should know about it.)
"The U.S. economy is not in recovery, and what ever upside bouncing there was in retail sales and industrial production increasingly appears to have been transient in nature. In this morning’s (May 17th) reporting, April 2011 housing starts continued their broad downtrend, bouncing downhill in renewed deterioration. More important than the statistically-insignificant monthly decline of 10.6%, the annual decline of 23.9% was significant, and the six-month moving-average has declined for the last three months, pushing the historic low level seen in April 2009.
Along with meaningful downside revisions to prior reporting (all post-benchmark), the Fed reported April 2011 industrial production to have been flat for the month, with the manufacturing component down by 0.4%. Without economic weakness being shifted in revision to earlier periods, the aggregate production index would have fallen by 0.5% for the month in April, with manufacturing production down by 1.1%.
In tandem with last week’s reporting of retail sales activity gaining less than 0.1%, net of higher prices (see Commentary No. 368), production activity appears to have stalled, with housing and consumer liquidity issues leading general economic activity into what eventually should be recognized as a double-dip recession.
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