Nenner on cycles: the dollar and gold:

Dollar Collapse Starts in Late 2014-Charles Nenner

May 21, 2014 In Economy

Renowned financial analyst Charles Nenner has been studying cycles to predict all major markets for the past three decades.  Does all the global manipulation in the markets make a difference to the timing of the cycles?  Nenner says, “It doesn’t . . . all these things have nothing to do with the way the markets behave.  They are part of the market behavior.”  Nenner gives Former Fed Head Alan Greenspan as an example.  Nenner explains, “Greenspan and his guys were part of the market.  So, if it would be so that you could manipulate the markets, then we could not predict; and since we predict with much success, then it proves there is no influence whatsoever.” 

On the inflation/deflation question, Nenner predicts both, but first deflation.  Nenner says, “We are holding on to the deflation scenario.  I think we are going into deflation.  I still think we are going to a Japan scenario.  It doesn’t mean that in a couple of years we won’t have super-inflation.”  Nenner adds everything is on a cycle, including interest rates, and goes on to say, “Interest rates go up 30 years and 30 years down; and if you start counting back, in two to four years, we should go back to the old highs of 18% or so.”  Nenner says governments “want” and “need” inflation.  Nenner explains, “Everybody in the end wants the inflation; otherwise, the deficits are going to be huge.” 

On bank bail-ins, Nenner says, “In Cyprus, there was an example made that they could just confiscate your money.  I am very worried about bail-ins.  A couple of years ago, I said we should start a new crisis in 2014, and it will end in 2020.  God only knows what governments intend to do.  I think they should just leave the market alone, but they are not going to do it.  So, they are going to make things worse.”  

So, where is Nenner telling people to put their money for the next six years?  Nenner says, “You know I am Dutch.  I always say ‘how do I not lose money.’  Americans want to know how to make money.  So, in a deflationary period, it is very difficult to make money. . . . We are totally out of the stock market, and we are getting ready to buy back gold.  We got out of the gold market at $1,900 (per ounce) and our major cycle low is in July.  The risk on the downside is not more than $100 (per ounce), but we are still holding off and we think the bull market (in gold) will resume.  Nenner thinks the bottom in gold is close and contends, “We can still go to $1,150 (per ounce).  If you are afraid, you can buy physical gold because a lot of people are afraid of the financial system. . . . I am loading up on very long term calls on GLD.  So, it doesn’t matter if I am a couple of weeks off and I just wait.”  Nenner goes on to predict, “I think that because of the monetary situation, that gold will outperform silver.”  Where does Nenner think the gold price is going between now and 2020?  Nenner predicts, “Our first target is $2,100 (per ounce), then $2,500; and if it breaks that, gold could go parabolic.”

Why collect Ancient Greek art?

To appreciate the Greek artwork we find on Greek coinage one must have a rudimentary appreciation of Classical Greek culture.  Is Greek culture really still relevant in the 21st Century?

The answer is that it is relevant only to those who are interested in Democracy, an Independent Judiciary, psychology, philosophy, ethics, drama, tragedy and comedy - all of which were invented in Classical Greece.

It is tempting to regard the above statement as something of an exaggeration.  Surely, other cultures and other periods contributed something to origin of these intellectual and practical constructs.  But no; in fact other cultures did not.  As incredible as it may seem these were all invented in Classical Greece - mostly in Athens and mostly during the Age of Pericles and shortly thereafter.

For example Socrates invented the discipline of Ethics - as it is understood today.  His inquiries into the nature of Justice as something absolute that applies equally to all simply did not exist before he raised the issue.  Before Socrates Justice was something that existed solely in relation to the right of Power.  In fact, there is no philosopher in Western history to compare with Socrates.  The next closest in brilliance would be Plato and Aristotle.

Take Drama, which was also invented in classical Greece.  The plays of Euripides (a student of Socrates) and Sophocles - just to name two - are performed, studied, deconstructed and emulated to this day.  And the musical scales and theory invented to accompany these performances are also in use and studied to this day.

Then there is the invention of Democracy.  The much-referenced Founding Fathers were all - each and every one - students of Ancient Greek and Ancient Greece.  It is from that model that our representative Democracy as well as our model of an Independent Judiciary were borrowed.

Before Classical Greece Democracy was not even a Concept.

And speaking of Concepts - these were invented in Classical Greece.  Before this culture during this period, Concepts didn't exist.

"But of course there must have been concepts - even if by some other name!"  Actually - no.  There weren't.  People had thoughts.  People had ideas.  But not concepts.  What's the distinction?  You'll have to study Plato and Socrates to find out.  But suffice it to say it has nothing to do with the word as currently used in bankrupt terminology such as "Concept Art."

And that brings us to Classical Greek Art.  Of course, we must begin with the Parthenon, a building wherein the dynamic tension of curved lines (entasis) and the inverted inclinations of its planes are sources of wonder, study and contemplation to this day.  The building was adorned with fantastic sculpture presided over by Phidias.    Many of these still exist in the British Museum (the Elgin marbles.) 

But none of this is currently available for sale to modern collectors/investors.

But many sculptors of this period also worked in minature - as celetors - or engravers of coinage.

And their magnificent artworks are still available to collectors.

For example the facing head Arethustra of Kimon, pictured above.  This coin will be auctioned off Monday and some lucky collector will buy it for between 1 and 2 million dollars.  Which makes this the most expensive Greek artwork currently available to collectors.  Apart from the beauty of the work itself, the context in which it was created is incomparable to those with the education to appreciate that context.  Imagine Kimon sitting at a dinner party with Plato and Philistis (who were present also at the court of Dionysus I when this coin was minted) discussing the latest performance of a play by Aristophenes who was in Sicily for the performance.  Imagine the conversation at that dinner.

The fact that the ancient Greek artworks of great beauty sell for tiny fraction of the price of  Contemporary American artworks is a testament to the tremendous deficit of taste and education amongst America's wealthy elite.  Barnett Newman is an interesting artist.  His artworks - which sell for 80 to 100 million dollars - have already stood the test of time of about 50 years.  Not bad.  But there are thousands and thousands of Barnett Newmans floating around.

There are six facing head Kimons.

Will a blue canvas still be interesting to collectors in another 50 years?  Or 500 Years?

Who knows?

Will a facing head tetradrachm of Kimon still be intersting to collectors/investors  in another 2500 years?

It is certain.

The Dollar under attack: Read: Oil, Gas and Arms trade settled in Eurasian Currencies:

The birth of a Eurasian century: Russia and China do Pipelineistan

Published time: May 20, 2014 13:44

Russia's President Vladimir Putin (L) and China's President Xi Jinping attend an agreement signing ceremony during a bilateral meeting at Xijiao State Guest house ahead of the fourth Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) summit, in Shanghai on May 20, 2014.

vision of a Sino-Russian alliance wedded to an expansive symbiosis of trade and commerce across much of the Eurasian land mass - at the expense of the United States.

And no wonder Washington is anxious. That alliance is already a done deal in a variety of ways: through the BRICS group of emerging powers (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa); at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Asian counterweight to NATO; inside the G20; and via the 120-member-nation Non-Aligned Movement (NAM).

Trade and commerce are just part of the future bargain.

Synergies in the development of new military technologies beckon as well. After Russia’s Star Wars-style, ultra-sophisticated S-500 air defense anti-missile system comes online in 2018, Beijing is sure to want a version of it. Meanwhile, Russia is about to sell dozens of state-of-the-art Sukhoi Su-35 jet fighters to the Chinese as Beijing and Moscow move to seal an aviation-industrial partnership.

Russia’s VTB and Bank of China agree on domestic currency settlements

Published time: May 20, 2014 08:58
Edited time: May 20, 2014 11:27

Reuters / Sergei Karpukhin

VTB, Russia’s second biggest lender, has signed a deal with Bank of China, which includes an agreement to pay each other in domestic currencies.

“Under the agreement, the banks plan to develop their partnership in a number of areas, including cooperation on ruble and renminbi settlements, investment banking, inter-bank lending, trade finance and capital-markets transactions,” says the official VTB statement.
The deal underlines VTB Group’s growing interest in Asian markets and will help grow trade between Russia and China that are already close trading partners, said VTB Bank Management Board Vasily Titov.
An Agreement on Cooperation was signed by Titov and Bank of China President Chen Siqing in Shanghai on Tuesday in the presence of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
VTB Group is Russia’s second biggest financial institution with more than 30 banks and financial firms in more than 20 countries. Its assets were estimated at 8.8 billion rubles as of 2013, with a profit of 100.5 billion rubles.

Growing trade and investment

The agreement comes as a part of Russia’s larger scale pivot to Asia, as Western economies threaten sanctions over the turmoil in Ukraine. Sanctions by the US and the EU have been mostly limited to visa bans and asset freezes on some leading Russian officials, and so far only threatening a so-called third round of real economic sanctions against Russian businesses.
In the first day of a two-day trip to China Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said the two countries will be increasing their bilateral trade to reach a new level.
“Our countries have done a huge job to reach a new historic landmark…. China has firmly settled in a position of our key trade partner,” Putin said.
Putin also said that trade turnover between Russia and China grew almost 2 percent during 2013 to reach about $90 billion.
“If we sustain this pace the level of bilateral trade of $100 billion will be reached by 2015 and we’ll confidently move on,” Putin said.

Russia and China seal historic $400bn gas deal

Published time: May 21, 2014 09:29
Edited time: May 22, 2014 11:16

After 10 years of negotiations, Russia's Gazprom and China's CNPC have finally signed a historic gas deal which will provide the world's fastest growing economy with the natural gas it needs to keep pace for the next 30 years.
The total value of the contract is $400 billion, Gazprom CEO Aleksey Miller said. However, the price of gas stipulated in the document remains a "commercial secret."
Assuming the overall price of the contract includes only the cost of supplies of Russian gas, then the $400 billion price tag means China will pay about $350 per 1,000 cubic meters. Delivery price for the contract will be tied to market oil prices, Putin said from Shanghai on Tuesday.

Russia and China Block Security Council Move to Prosecute Syria War Crimes

By RICK GLADSTONEMAY 22, 2014

Photo

A measure to refer the Syrian crisis to the International Criminal Court for investigation of possible war crimes received 13 yes votes on Thursday in the 15-member United Nations Security Council. Credit Lucas Jackson/Reuters

Russia and China on Thursday vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution that would have empowered the International Criminal Court to investigate and prosecute war crimes in Syria, defying widespread support for such a move by human rights advocates and many United Nations members, including the United States.

It was the fourth time that Russia and China used their veto power as permanent Security Council members to block any coercive action by the international body in the Syrian conflict, which began more than three years ago and has claimed at least 150,000 lives.

Iran-Russia-China alliance US nightmare: 

Academic A prospective security alliance between Iran, China and Russia will give the cash-strapped United States a nightmare, an Iranian academic tells Press TV.

Foad Izadi, a professor at the University of Tehran, made the comment in an interview with Press TV after Chinese President Xi Jinping called for the creation of a new Asian organization for security cooperation with the participation of Iran and Russia.

“I think the Chinese-Iranian-Russian alliance is a nightmare for the United States,” he said.

Izadi also stated that the current state of relations between Iran, China and Russia enables these “three partners” to “form an alliance with other Asian countries and basically defend their national interests against the United States and a number of European countries.”

The No Exit economy

Half a century ago Jean Paul Sartre wrote (or perhaps his girl friend wrote) Huis Clos which literally means Shut Hinges but is translated as No Exit.  The play describes a situation wherein a group of three people are locked in a room with no options, choices or recourse - for eternity.

Whether or not this describes Human Existence, it certainly describes the nearly 4 trillion dollar and growing Fed Balance Sheet - and by extension - the US banking system and the Global Banking System.

The Fed is currently "scaling back" the growth of its balance sheet.  Unfortunately the US economy is growing at a pace that is slightly slower than the pace at which the Fed Balance sheet is growing.  As they scale back their growth, they are also scaling back US growth - which is the engine of Global Growth.

Eventually as growth goes negative they will have to expand their balance sheet - to eternity.

Now - there are tens of thousands of economists employed by the banks and the Financial Networks that will explain until the cows come home how those three unhappy people (Fed, ECB and BOJ) really do have options.  They can talk to each other (jawboning) they can make transactions with each other (trade debt) they can ignore each other (competitive devaluations).

But none of this gets them out of the little room.

What does this mean?  It means for sure that as their balance sheets grow towards infinity their units of account on those balance sheets (Money) shrink towards ZERO.

And this also means that everything real that can be bought or traded in those units of account move towards Infinity as measured by the units of account (Money.)

Act Accordingly,.

Overvalued art featuring post modern "Concepts" and undervalued art featured classical "Concepts" both setting records:

1482 Torah book fetches record $3.87 million at Paris auction

May 1, 2014 9:56am

(JTA) — A 15th-century book of the Torah sold for a record $3.87 million at an auction in Paris.
Christie’s, which organized Wednesday’s auction, listed the buyer as “anonymous” and said the sale broke the mark for the most expensive Hebrew-language book. Three buyers attempted to outbid each other over the telephone, the news website actualitte.com reported Thursday.
The book was printed in Hebrew in Bologna in January 1482, according to Christie’s.
“The volume represents the very first appearance in print of all five books of the Pentateuch as well as the first to which vocalization and cantillation marks have been added,” the Christie’s website said.
Prior to the auction, Christie’s estimated the item’s worth at up to 1.5 million euros, or $2.08 million.
The back of the copy bears the signature of three 16th- and 17th-century censors testifying to its presence in an Italian library until at least the mid-17th century, according to Christie’s.



 Barnett Newman’s stark Black Fire 1 was the top lot of the night, selling for $84.2 million.

An encouraging part of what was obviously a very managed sale was that 11 artists set new world auction records and these were not the usual suspects like Basquiat, Warhol or Rothko, although those auction house darlings all featured among the 10 most expensive lots. Instead, Barnett Newman’s stark Black Fire 1 was the top lot of the night, selling for $84.2 million. That was pretty much double the previous auction record for a Newman work of $43.8 million, which was set just last May at Sotheby’s.

Joan Mitchell’s vibrant 1960 painting Untitled set a new world record for a female artist when it sold for $11.9 million. The record had previously been held by Impressionist painter Berthe Morisot, whose Apres le dejeuner sold for $10.9 million at Christie’s in London in February 2013. And Alexander Calder’s Flying Fish mobile, suspended from the ceiling above the sales room audience last night, sold for $25.9 million, beating the previous record set for the artist when another mobile sold for $18.5 million at Christie’s in 2012.

Investing 5/14/2014 @ 1:06PM 1,547 views

New Artists Set Auction Records At Christie's Biggest Ever Sale

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Over half of the art may have been guaranteed to sell before Christie’s post-war and contemporary art auction even got underway in New York last night, but the auction house set a new record for a single sale, selling $744 million of art. That eclipsed the previous record that it set when it raised $691.6 million during its big post-war and contemporary auction last November.
An encouraging part of what was obviously a very managed sale was that 11 artists set new world auction records and these were not the usual suspects like Basquiat, Warhol or Rothko, although those auction house darlings all featured among the 10 most expensive lots. Instead, Barnett Newman’s stark Black Fire 1 was the top lot of the night, selling for $84.2 million. That was pretty much double the previous auction record for a Newman work of $43.8 million, which was set just last May at Sotheby’s

Rare 1482 Torah breaks two records

by the-saleroom.com on May 14, 2014 in Books, History, Sold at Auction & Auction Results | No comments

A rare 1482 Torah, or Pentateuch, which is considered by many to stand alongside the Gutenberg Bible as a monument of early printing, broke two records when it sold for nearly £2m at Christie’s Paris.
In doing so, it set new levels for any Hebrew printed book and indeed for any printed book sold in France.
The Torah, printed in Hebrew in Bologna, marked the first appearance in print of all five books that make up the Pentateuch and was the first to which vocalisation and cantillation marks, essential to the reading and chanting of the text, were added. more »

- See more at: http://blog.the-saleroom.com/?utm_source=newsletter_up599&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=update_mc&utm_content=all-blog-posts#sthash.61lOFOeD.dpuf

Rare 1482 Torah breaks two records

by the-saleroom.com on May 14, 2014 in Books, History, Sold at Auction & Auction Results | No comments

A rare 1482 Torah, or Pentateuch, which is considered by many to stand alongside the Gutenberg Bible as a monument of early printing, broke two records when it sold for nearly £2m at Christie’s Paris.
In doing so, it set new levels for any Hebrew printed book and indeed for any printed book sold in France.
The Torah, printed in Hebrew in Bologna, marked the first appearance in print of all five books that make up the Pentateuch and was the first to which vocalisation and cantillation marks, essential to the reading and chanting of the text, were added. more »

- See more at: http://blog.the-saleroom.com/?utm_source=newsletter_up599&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=update_mc&utm_content=all-blog-posts#sthash.61lOFOeD.dpuf

Rare 1482 Torah breaks two records

« Return to Blog | May 14, 2014 12:24 pm | Posted by the-saleroom.com

A rare 1482 Torah, or Pentateuch, which is considered by many to stand alongside the Gutenberg Bible as a monument of early printing, broke two records when it sold for nearly £2m at Christie’s Paris.
In doing so, it set new levels for any Hebrew printed book and indeed for any printed book sold in France.
The Torah, printed in Hebrew in Bologna, marked the first appearance in print of all five books that make up the Pentateuch and was the first to which vocalisation and cantillation marks, essential to the reading and chanting of the text, were added.
Until last month, just two copies had come to auction in over 100 years. The first, in 1970, was printed on vellum – as indeed were most copies – and complete, while the second, sold for £310,000 at Christie’s in 1998, was on paper and lacked eight pages. This third copy, newly discovered in a French private collection, was the highlight of the Christie’s Paris sale of April 30. Printed on vellum and lacking only a rear free endpaper, it almost doubled the high estimate to sell for €2.4m (£1,971,360).

- See more at: http://blog.the-saleroom.com/sold-at-auction/rare-1482-torah-breaks-two-records/#more-2060

Rare 1482 Torah breaks two records

« Return to Blog | May 14, 2014 12:24 pm | Posted by the-saleroom.com

A rare 1482 Torah, or Pentateuch, which is considered by many to stand alongside the Gutenberg Bible as a monument of early printing, broke two records when it sold for nearly £2m at Christie’s Paris.
In doing so, it set new levels for any Hebrew printed book and indeed for any printed book sold in France.
The Torah, printed in Hebrew in Bologna, marked the first appearance in print of all five books that make up the Pentateuch and was the first to which vocalisation and cantillation marks, essential to the reading and chanting of the text, were added.
Until last month, just two copies had come to auction in over 100 years. The first, in 1970, was printed on vellum – as indeed were most copies – and complete, while the second, sold for £310,000 at Christie’s in 1998, was on paper and lacked eight pages. This third copy, newly discovered in a French private collection, was the highlight of the Christie’s Paris sale of April 30. Printed on vellum and lacking only a rear free endpaper, it almost doubled the high estimate to sell for €2.4m (£1,971,360).

- See more at: http://blog.the-saleroom.com/sold-at-auction/rare-1482-torah-breaks-two-records/#more-2060

Rare 1482 Torah breaks two records

« Return to Blog | May 14, 2014 12:24 pm | Posted by the-saleroom.com

A rare 1482 Torah, or Pentateuch, which is considered by many to stand alongside the Gutenberg Bible as a monument of early printing, broke two records when it sold for nearly £2m at Christie’s Paris.
In doing so, it set new levels for any Hebrew printed book and indeed for any printed book sold in France.
The Torah, printed in Hebrew in Bologna, marked the first appearance in print of all five books that make up the Pentateuch and was the first to which vocalisation and cantillation marks, essential to the reading and chanting of the text, were added.
Until last month, just two copies had come to auction in over 100 years. The first, in 1970, was printed on vellum – as indeed were most copies – and complete, while the second, sold for £310,000 at Christie’s in 1998, was on paper and lacked eight pages. This third copy, newly discovered in a French private collection, was the highlight of the Christie’s Paris sale of April 30. Printed on vellum and lacking only a rear free endpaper, it almost doubled the high estimate to sell for €2.4m (£1,971,360).

- See more at: http://blog.the-saleroom.com/sold-at-auction/rare-1482-torah-breaks-two-records/#more-2060

Rare 1482 Torah breaks two records

« Return to Blog | May 14, 2014 12:24 pm | Posted by the-saleroom.com

A rare 1482 Torah, or Pentateuch, which is considered by many to stand alongside the Gutenberg Bible as a monument of early printing, broke two records when it sold for nearly £2m at Christie’s Paris.

- See more at: http://blog.the-saleroom.com/sold-at-auction/rare-1482-torah-breaks-two-records/#more-2060

1482 Torah book fetches record $3.87 million at Paris auction

May 1, 2014 9:56am

(JTA) — A 15th-century book of the Torah sold for a record $3.87 million at an auction in Paris.
Christie’s, which organized Wednesday’s auction, listed the buyer as “anonymous” and said the sale broke the mark for the most expensive Hebrew-language book. Three buyers attempted to outbid each other over the telephone, the news website actualitte.com reported Thursday.
The book was printed in Hebrew in Bologna in January 1482, according to Christie’s.
“The volume represents the very first appearance in print of all five books of the Pentateuch as well as the first to which vocalization and cantillation marks have been added,” the Christie’s website said.
Prior to the auction, Christie’s estimated the item’s worth at up to 1.5 million euros, or $2.08 million.
The back of the copy bears the signature of three 16th- and 17th-century censors testifying to its presence in an Italian library until at least the mid-17th century, according to Christie’s.

Read more: http://www.jta.org/2014/05/01/news-opinion/world/torah-book-fetches-record-3-87-million-at-paris-auction#ixzz31ymJsQ2a

The main stream media is a monolithic enterprise anchored by Fox News and Viacom (CBS/NBC)

Five giant corporations control 90 percent of US mass media. And direct links connect all five of these media conglomerates to the political establishment and the economic and political power-elites of the United States.

These five conglomerates are Time Warner, Disney, Murdochs’ News Corporation, Bertelsmann of Germany, and Viacom (formerly CBS). Their control spans most of the newspapers, magazines, books, radio and TV stations, movie studios, and much of the web news content of the United States. These conglomerates are in large measure responsible for inculcating the social, political, economic, and moral values of both adults and children in the United States.

It was not always like this. Immediately after World War II three out of four US newspapers were independently owned. But the media-control numbers have been shrinking ever since then due to mergers, acquisitions, and other processes. By 1983, 50 corporations controlled 90 percent of US media. But today just five giant conglomerates control 90 percent of what most Americans read, watch, and listen

It is notable and should be emphasized that all the five major media conglomerates are corporate members of the Council on Foreign relations. This organization is a US think-tank whose members have been instrumental in formulating US government policies resulting in sanctions, destabilization efforts, and outright military attacks on nations which have never attacked the US.

The Council’s members’ activities helped to promote the Iraq war, the bombings of Serbia and Libya, and the recent overthrow of the elected government of the Ukraine. The promotion of these policies by the media conglomerates which belong to the Council has been key to preparing the American public to accept these policies.

The media conglomerates’ fellow members of the Council on Foreign relations include a large number of large corporations, powerful CEO’s, and present and former government officials. One prominent member is former US National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, whose doctrine calling for US control of the Eurasian landmass, which includes Russia and China, is one of the guiding elements in US foreign policy.

It should also be noted that the media conglomerates themselves are giant corporations. They are among the largest companies in the world. They contribute to both of America’s big parties, the Republicans and Democrats, while supporting their policies. US media companies have also received from the Reagan, Clinton, and Bush administrations progressively greater media deregulation, which permitted ever greater media ownership concentration, culminating for the first time in allowing all the media in a community or city to be owned by one company.

Though they squabble on air about "Liberals and Conservatives" as a sop to their viewers, their political and financial interests are identical.  

And their chief interest is in maintaining a militaristic and aggressive United Sates while maintaining  the illusion of a strong and sound banking system, that is firmly in control of then global economy that supports their corporate interests.

Pages would be needed to list the thousands of information outlets now controlled by the five conglomerates. A few examples will have to suffice.

Viacom owns Paramount pictures and subsidiaries, CBS, UPN, MTV, Kings World, VHI, COmedy Central, Nick, Sundance, Spike, Spelling, Showtime, Infinity, Metro, etc etc

News Corp owns Fox News, the Wall Street Journal, Barrons weekly, the London times, far Eastern Economic review, the New York Post, and hundreds of other large and small city and community newspapers, magazines, and internet properties.

Time-warner owns Time Magazine, Fortune Magazine, People Magazine, Sports Illustrated, CNN news group, Turner networks and movies, Warner brothers films, DC Comics, Times online systems, and much more.

And Disney is not just about Mickey Mouse Cartoons these days, as it owns ABC Television, magazine publishing business, Disney Films, Lucas Films, and a huge number of other media and entertainment enterprises, as well as hedge funds devoted to real estate.

So keep on squabbling at home about the liberal and conservative medias.  It's all entertainment to them.  It keeps you tuned in.  But don't think for an instant that their real motives and attitudes are not monolithic.

Gold: It's all about one thing: Confidence

You'll be reading tons about gold as the "Recovery" story begins to lose its plausibility.

Most commentary will link gold to the dollar, GDP, the Euro, China, the BRICS, and especially that old saw "Inflation."

Sure, there will always be correlations.  But correlations have nothing to do with causation.

And none of those things listed above can cause gold to move.

The only thing that moves gold is CONFIDENCE - or the loss thereof.

Confidence in a sound banking system.

The banking system is the source of dollar strength or weakness, because the US Central Bank has a monopoly on dollar creation.

The banking system is the source of GDP as the banks allocate capital.

The banking system creates inflation or deflation by setting rates and issuing and allocating money.

And as long as the global public, and mostly the US public maintains an enduring faith in the efficacy of the global banking system, which is led by the US Central bank, gold will dither.

Faith cracked in 2008 and gold soared.

Just as faith cracked in 1979 and set gold soaring.  Sure inflation got out of hand, but that was a correlation.  The cause was a loss of confidence in the banking system.

Right now the mainstream media, especially the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNBC and Bloomberg are leading a concerted cheer leading effort to pump confidence into the global banking system that owns them.

They write story after story about how Tarp was all paid back and the banks have been stress tested and that balance sheets have been restored blah blah blah.

And it's working.  Just look at the stock market.

But confidence is a funny thing.  People really want to believe in their institutions.  And that's half the battle.  The other half has to do with the institutions looking out for their clients: the US public.

But when you have a banking system that's addicted to gambling with infinite leverage, a banking system whose mission is to extract every last cent of capital from the economy, you're bound to eventually compromise confidence.

And when confidence goes - again - that's when gold when take off - again.

Martin Armstrong by 2016 confidence turns

  War Cycle-Europe Absolute Disaster Zone-Martin Armstrong

War Cycle-Europe Absolute Disaster Zone-Martin 

By  USAWatchdog.com   (Early Sunday Release)

Renowned analyst, Martin Armstrong contends the financial markets run in cycles, and “confidence will always outweigh reality.”  Armstrong clarifies, “It’s basically what you believe.  There have been all sorts of studies on fundamentals that say if interest rates go up, stocks go down.  It is simply not true.  The stock market has never peaked with interest rates twice in history.  If you think you are going to make 25% in the market, you’ll pay 10% interest; but if you really think the market is only going to go up 10%, you won’t pay 10%.  So, it’s always the difference between what you believe and reality.” 

Armstrong, who invented forecasting called the Economic Confidence Model, says, “Knowing how empires die is fundamental to forecasting the world economy.”  Armstrong explains, “You have a lot of people talking about hyperinflation, and that’s not how empires actually die.  That’s more or less the peripheral type economies like Germany was after WWI.  The empires that have actually collapsed, such as Rome or Britain, you don’t see hyperinflation.  What you do see is massive debt that just keeps going and going–exactly in the process we are at now.  They are trying to sustain power.  So then, what do they do?  They get very aggressive with taxation and come after you.” 

What is Armstrong’s take on the current U.S. economy?  Surprisingly, he says, “The major economy that we have is still strong underneath.  It is still supporting the world economy.  Europe is going down.  You have all the emerging markets declining, such as Russia and China, etc.  We are declining, but it is not as robust as it was before, and it should turn down by the end of next year.  The primary thing holding up the U.S. right now is internal capital flows that are coming from everywhere.  Part of that is geopolitical.  A lot of it is real estate.  The high end real estate is still booming.  Why?  You have a tremendous amount of capital from Europe and even China just trying to get off the grid.  They are talking about seizing money in bank accounts.  One of the number one questions I get all the time is where do I put my money?  If the banks can just take whatever they want now, there will be bail-ins rather than bail-outs. People are afraid.  What do you do with the cash?  So, people are buying things like real estate and stocks, just trying to get money out of the banking system.”  

On the subject of so-called bail-ins coming to America, Armstrong says, “Everybody knows I advise some of the big institutions around, and I can tell you that they have told me directly that the Fed went to them and told them they will not be bailed out for proprietary trading.  It will be only on deposits.  That’s it.  The Fed has been going around telling them, ‘hey, you better change your models.’  They don’t think it will be a flight to quality as it was before.  You buy the long term (Treasuries) and that saves you.  They don’t think that’s going to happen.  It’s quite interesting. . . . It looks like the long term (Treasury bonds) is going to end up starting to rise.   Eventually, people don’t trust government, and what happens then is they move from the public sector into the private sector.  In some of your extreme cases, like Germany’s hyperinflation, everything went up–real estate, art, metals, whatever was tangible.  What you are seeing today is the same kind of attitude, but not necessarily hyperinflation, but everything is going up dramatically.” 
On the subject of the U.S. collapsing, Armstrong says, “The core economy never collapses first.  It’s the last thing to go.  If the United States would collapse first, then all the other economies would have to collapse.  It doesn’t work that way.  It comes from the outside in.  If the United States were to collapse first, the entire world would have to collapse.” 

On gold, Armstrong says, “Gold is still in a bear market.  I think
 it will have to make one more new low.  I think it will start to turn up around 2016.  I don’t see it going down drastically lower.  It is more a matter of timing.  When are people going to really start questioning government?  That’s when gold goes up.  You’ll notice that gold went up aggressively up until 2011.  People were worried about the economy going down and worried about government.  Gold goes up when our Economic Confidence Model goes down, and it should be the period between 2016 and 2020 when it begins to rise.”   

On market manipulation in all the markets, Armstrong says, “Any manipulation cannot change the direction of the trend.  You can go with the trend, increasing the volatility of it, but you can’t turn a bear market into a bull market.  Governments try, but if everybody wants to sell, it’s just going to be gone.  The confidence has to be there.” 

Global war and civil unrest is also in Armstrong’s forecast.  His model shows a 300 year cycle is upon us.  Armstrong predicts, “It turned up in 2014.  The 300 year model is civil unrest.  Going into it was the Occupy Wall Street, but that was peaceful. Next time the Occupy starts, you are going to see much more violence, as you are seeing Europe, but that will probably take place in the U.S. after 2016.  In Europe, you are seeing unrest everywhere. . . . Europe seems to be absolutely crumbling. . . . It’s an absolute disaster zone everywhere you look.”

Here in the US the pension funds are all somewhere between underfunded and completely broke.  By 2016 there will soon be major unrest surrounding pension funds and then with the Government itself as it hunts revenue through increased taxation.  Bail-ins will become a global phenomenon and you will soon see the loss of confidence in global governmental systems.

Scary picture: Portrait of a "Recovery"

Reality check:

OK. Well, the Big News on Friday, was the fabtabulous, sensational, super-duper, with a cherry on top, Jobs report for April. According to the BLS, (Bureau of Labor Statistics) 288,000 jobs were created in April. I pause for a minute to point out a key word here. "created".

For a majority of the 288,000 jobs reported created in April, were "created" from the minds of the BLS. 234,000 of those 288,000 jobs were added to the surveys by the BLS using their Birth / Death model.  It was as if: We're Making it all up as we go along.

How does the BLS justify this?  In their own words:

"There is an unavoidable lag between an establishment opening for business and its appearance on the sample frame making it available for sampling. Because new firm births generate a portion of employment growth each month, non-sampling methods must be used to estimate this growth."

"Non sampling methods" is gov-speak for "guessing."

This explains why in the face of our amazing "recovery" the dollar has continued to drop.

Three major greek rarities at NAC

NAC Auctions 77 and 78

Great Spring at NAC

This spring, NAC’s sales 77 and 78, to be held at the Hotel Baur au Lac in Zurich, will be another unmissable numismatic event. More than 1,500 lots are to be sold in these two days, at an total estimate nearly CHF 10 million.

The estimates for these coins are likely to be exceeded by a magnitude of at least 2-3 times.

Auction 77 – The David Walsh Collection
This catalogue is exclusively dedicated to the David Walsh Collection featuring an impressive collection comprising over 150 prestigious and interesting coins, formed in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Lot 17: Greek, Syracuse, Tetradrachm, signed Kimon (ex Auction Leu 76, Lot 57 dated 27 october 1999). Estimate: CHF 1,000,000.

The star of the remarkable Syracuse series of this collection is undoubtedly a tetradrachm bearing the facing head of Arthethusa, signed by Kimon; collectors will no doubt recognise the coin (ex Käppeli collection) from the cover of the catalogue of Leu’s 1999 auction 76. This is, in our opinion, one of the finest Greek coins in private hands.

Other highlights include a selection of Athenian coins boasting a tetradrachm of the “Wappenmünzen” series with a glittering provenance (ex Jameson and Gillet collections), …

Lot 46: Greek, Athens, Gold stater. Estimate: CHF 350,000.

… as well as an extremely rare gold stater …

Lot 45: Greek, Athens, Decadrachm. Estimate: CHF 90,000.

The Greek part of the sale concludes with a wonderful selection of Bactrian coins with many rarities that have long been absent on the market.

Too Big To Fail is also Too Big to Jail (or even Prosecute)

Criminal Charges Against Banks Risk Sparking Crisis

By Greg Farrell, Dakin Campbell and Keri Geiger May 1, 2014 1:00 AM ET

As U.S. Justice Department prosecutors angle to bring the first criminal charges against global banks since the financial crisis, they’ll have to stare down warnings of uncontainable collateral damage.
Stung by lawmakers’ criticism that multi-billion-dollar settlements have done too little to punish Wall Street in the wake of the financial crisis, prosecutors are considering indictments in probes of Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) and BNP Paribas SA (BNP), a person familiar with the matter said. Even after talking with financial regulators about ways to mitigate damage -- such as ensuring banks keep charters -- prosecutors might not fully understand consequences for the market, according to industry lawyers and bankers who are following the case.

Bank clients -- including trustees, fiduciaries and pension funds -- could be forced to cut ties with a financial institution labeled a criminal enterprise, the lawyers and bankers said, asking not to be named because they weren’t authorized to talk publicly. Counterparties also might think twice before entering into billion-dollar transactions with such firms. Damaging a bank’s business could lead to broader fallout across the financial industry, just as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse in 2008 prompted investors to withdraw from other firms on concern its exit would set off a wave of losses.

Photographer: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg

U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York Preet Bharara said “Companies,... Read More

Criminal action would have to be handled so that any review of a bank’s charter wouldn’t spook customers or revoke a firm’s license, said Gil Schwartz, a partner at Schwartz & Ballen LLP and a former Federal Reserve lawyer. 

“The mere threat of requiring a hearing could cause customers to lose confidence in the institution and could cause a run on the bank,” Schwartz said.