The GOLD PIVOT - Nobody rings a bell.

 

If you listen to all the popular technical analysts you hear that gold must retrace to $3500 to $3800 for a back the truck up moment when all is clear to load up on gold again.

Back the truck up moments only appear in fantasy land.  Or at the end of long crushing bear markets.  And then nobody will back the truck up.  They'll be driving off in the opposite direction and they'll laugh at you if you disagree.  That was gold back in 2002.  I remember because luminaries like Richard Russel (RIP) and James Rickards (who's currently predicting gold at $27,000) were urging clients to buy gold at $350 and few were listening.  Most were jeering.  

But in the middle of bull market corrections, back the truck up moments never occur.

And that's where we are now.

The war had been the most recent wild card affecting the gold price.  But as it grinds on in its forever fashion with brief kinetic explosions and then hastily patched truces, gold begins to assimilate and acclimatize to the short term trading effects and reverts to its long term purpose as the true and only effective Debt and Currency Debasement Hedge.

Because the only certainty about war is that it is massively inflationary.

It is very expensive to wage war.  And the supply chain disruptions - especially when involving oil - cause huge spikes in the cost of food and fuel - and most everything else.

And in the world's most indebted economy (perhaps history's most indebted economy) with 40 trillion dollars of sovereign debt and another 150 trillion in unfunded liabilities and a banking system laden with tens of trillions in mark to model debt that needs to be refinanced this year and perhaps most troubling a TWO TRILLION DOLLAR PRIVATE CREDIT HOLE that is in the process of imploding as I write - and it will all have to be bailed out by the Fed - the added burden of WAR DEBT and Disruption will only put the gold price on steroids.

When?

Now.  

I can't tell you gold skyrockets it ten minutes, but let me give you some numbers that analysts who got the gold bull right before it happened as predicitng right now: James Rickards: $27,000, Simon Hunt: $35,000, Michael Oliver $8,000, Ed Dowd $10,000, and luminaries like Stanley Druckenmiller and Ray Dalio are urging investorts to move at least 20 percent of their entire portfolio into gold to hedge the inevitable debt crisis.  Even stock jockey banks like JP Morgan, UBS, and Wells Fargo have year end gold prices above $6000.

So don't wait for a back up the truck moment.

That moment came in 2002 and it's not coming back until some sort of new currency system is ushered in by whatever governments survives the debt implosion.